A Look at the Oscar Race: Is It Too Early to Call It? Insights on This Year’s Season

A column chronicling conversations and events on the awards circuit.

At a holiday party Saturday night honoring Roadside Attractions co-president Erik d’Arbeloff, who celebrated his 60th birthday, and his son Lucas, who turned 21, industry insiders and Academy voters gathered at Smog Shoppe on La Cienega. Conversations revealed that many attendees had yet to catch up on this year’s Oscar contenders as the award season heats up.

Nominations for the 96th Academy Awards will begin on January 12 at 9 a.m. PT and conclude on January 16 at 5 p.m. PT. With the two-week holiday break providing a window for Oscar voters to catch up, even those who typically lag behind have a chance to view films after numerous critics’ nominations and endorsements, including from President Barack Obama.

Among the Academy voters, there exists a dedicated group that strives to keep pace with the films released in a timely manner. However, attendance at screenings tends to vary significantly. While major titles like One Battle After Another and Sinners attract crowds, other films often see only limited viewership. For instance, a recent screening of Gus Van Sant’s Dead Man’s Wire attracted approximately 90 attendees, while just over half that number turned out for Lucy Liu’s performance in Rosemead, despite Q&A sessions following the screenings. The Academy’s digital screening room, while convenient, poses a challenge in terms of motivating voters to attend physical screenings unless the film is of exceptional interest.

Upcoming Award Nominations

Last season, the Academy amended its voting rules to ensure that voters have truly seen the nominated films. This change was confirmed in an official email to members, emphasizing an honor system where voters simply verify their viewing experience. Members who watch films on the Academy’s official streaming site are automatically validated, while those viewing elsewhere must indicate so next to the film’s title. This new protocol aims to keep members accountable and informed about what films they still need to view prior to voting. However, skepticism remains about whether members genuinely commit time for each viewing or simply track films without engagement.

This year, the Academy’s voting members and critics alike appear to converge on a select number of films, contributing to a predictable landscape in the early awards season. Notably, the indie film Anora has gained traction, showcasing its potential as it garnered attention from a significant portion of the Academy members. With less than three weeks left before nomination voting, there is hope that voters will prioritize viewing a wider range of films, though the prevailing sentiment suggests a strong frontrunner dynamic.

As discussions unfold, the prevailing question remains: is there a clear frontrunner like One Battle After Another? A veteran producer noted the strength of this title, especially in light of its accolades and critical acclaim. Having moderated an AMPAS screening, the enthusiastic reception for director Paul Thomas Anderson and the film’s cast hinted at its significant standing in the industry. With its prominent nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, the film’s early success must be tempered by caution, as historical patterns reveal that early frontrunners can face unforeseen challenges closer to Oscar night.

The competition may intensify from Warner Bros. with Sinners, which is experiencing its own resurgence following its April release. Surging in attention, the film has joined One Battle in the race, leading to speculation about potential divides among Academy voters. The fate of both films could hinge on how they resonate with Academy members in the coming weeks. Furthermore, director Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein might capitalize on any split, especially given the film’s critical craftsmanship and del Toro’s established acclaim within the industry.

Focus Features’ Hamnet adds to the mounting competition, leveraging the clout of producers Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes. Known for its emotional depth, the film has resonated with audiences since its debut at Telluride. Focus has yet to claim a Best Picture Oscar, making Hamnet an especially valuable contender. With equal footing alongside Sinners in the Oscar shortlists, both films showcase immense potential, even as they grapple with the historical challenges of sequels in award seasons.

Meanwhile, A24’s much-anticipated Marty Supreme is poised for significant recognition. Featuring Timothée Chalamet, the film has already made impressive strides at the box office. Its performance suggests it could emerge as a formidable player in the awards race as the Academy seeks to balance international talents and American narratives.

With international films like Sentimental Value, It Was Just An Accident, Sirat, and The Secret Agent also vying for attention, the increasing impact of the international voting bloc brings an additional layer of complexity to this year’s Oscars. The outcomes hinge not just on American films but on a broader global audience, with acclaimed selections likely to make their mark.

Reflecting on the landscape, the ultimate sentiment might lean toward caution; the narrative is still unwritten as the awards season unfolds.

OSCAR’S COMEBACK OF THE MONTH – DECEMBER

While One Battle After Another has been the frontrunner since its debut in September, Warner Bros. has strategically repositioned Sinners for greater visibility. By delaying its relaunch until November, the studio effectively reclaimed attention for the film, which subsequently topped Oscar shortlists. Its enthusiastic reception, underscored by 17 Critics Choice Awards nominations, reflects a recommitment to the Oscar race as the final voting approaches.

Highlighted by an array of talent who hosted events for Sinners, including Spike Jonze, Viola Davis, and Denzel Washington, the film has firmly established itself within both industry and Academy circles.

Recent moderated Q&A events, such as Denzel Washington’s discussion with co-star Delroy Lindo, have provided further engagement opportunities for Oscar voters. On December 14th, Viola Davis participated in another SAG-AFTRA Foundation session featuring Michael B. Jordan, amplifying the film’s visibility among key industry figures.

As various campaigns unfold, anticipation builds surrounding the nominations to be revealed on January 22, 2025. With competing narratives, award season promises to deliver surprising twists and compelling performances across the board.