Favorite Renegade Ends Up in Challenging Rail Position for Kentucky Derby Draw
Renegade Draws ‘Dreaded Rail’ Position for Kentucky Derby
As excitement builds for the upcoming Kentucky Derby, all eyes are on the post position draw, particularly the infamous “rail” spot. Traditionally viewed with apprehension, this position often places a horse at risk of being cramped by competitors. The tension surrounding this year’s draw quickly escalated when the second position assigned was No. 1—given to the betting favorite, Renegade.
“That’s brutal,” said analyst Larry Collmus on FanDuel TV, commenting on the challenging draw.
Mike Repole, Renegade’s owner, faces tough luck once again as he seeks his first victory in the Derby. Previously, he has seen promising contenders forced to withdraw before the race, including in 2011 and twice in the last three years.
Despite the draw, Renegade remains a strong contender, with Nick Tammaro listing him as the 4-1 favorite among a field of 20 horses. However, he may face stiff competition from two entrants trained by Brad Cox: Commandment, the Florida Derby winner, and Further Ado, the Blue Grass champion, both currently co-second choices at 6-1.
Historically, horses starting from the rail have struggled, with the last victor from that position being Ferdinand in 1986. In fact, post positions numbered 14, 12, 9, and 2 have been winners only sporadically, and No. 17 has never seen a winner in 46 attempts.
The field was not finalized until late Saturday morning when trainer Steve Asmussen opted to hold back Chip Honcho for the Preakness, leading to Litmus Test earning a spot. This gives Bob Baffert two horses to compete for his seventh Derby win, which would surpass the record he currently shares with Ben Jones. Baffert will also run Potente, who recently finished second to So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby.
From Southern California, So Happy boasts promising morning-line odds of 15-1, whereas Potente and Litmus Test are listed at 20-1 and 30-1, respectively.
Baffert finds himself alongside Cox and Riley Mott, who also have multiple entries this year. Despite having a strong presence in previous Derbies, Cox has yet to secure a win, with past entries performing below expectations.
Cox is determined to claim a victory that would symbolize a long-awaited breakthrough, as Mandaloun, who he trained, was only declared the 2021 Derby winner after the disqualification of Baffert’s Medina Spirit.
Alongside Baffert, seasoned trainers such as Bill Mott and Doug O’Neill also have entries vying for victory, with four horses placed on the also-eligible list, ready to step in if there are last-minute withdrawals.
Kentucky Derby Field
Here’s the complete lineup for the Kentucky Derby, including jockeys and morning-line odds:
- Renegade (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 4-1
- Albus (Manny Franco) 30-1
- Intrepido (Hector Berrios) 50-1
- Litmus Test (Martin Garcia) 30-1
- Right to Party (Chris Elliott) 30-1
- Commandment (Luis Saez) 6-1
- Danon Bourbon (Atsuya Nishimura) 20-1
- So Happy (Mike Smith) 15-1
- The Puma (Javier Castellano) 10-1
- Wonder Dean (Ryusei Sakai) 30-1
- Incredibolt (Jaime Torres) 20-1
- Chief Wallabee (Junior Alvarado) 8-1
- Silent Tactic (Cristian Torres) 20-1
- Potente (Juan Hernandez) 20-1
- Emerging Market (Flavien Prat) 15-1
- Pavlovian (Edwin Maldonado) 30-1
- Six Speed (Brian Hernandez Jr.) 50-1
- Further Ado (John Velazquez) 6-1
- Golden Tempo (Jose Ortiz) 30-1
- Fulleffort (Tyler Gaffalione) 20-1
AE21. Great White (Alex Achard)
AE22. Ocelli (Joe Ramos)
AE23. Robusta (Emisael Jaramillo)
AE24. Corona de Oro (Brian Hernandez Jr.)
