Pete Hammond’s Oscar Predictions: Insights on the Academy’s Votes and Those Who Stayed Silent
Predictions for the 98th Academy Awards are coming into focus after a year of speculation and anticipation. Initially, the space seemed straightforward, with One Battle After Another leading the conversation among precursor awards. However, the landscape shifted dramatically when Sinners made a strong showing at last week’s Actor Awards, leading many to believe the race has opened up unexpectedly.
The acting categories, while appearing solid, have also shown signs of uncertainty. The Academy’s new requirement that voters declare they have viewed all nominees in each category has emerged as a potential game-changer. Although this rule primarily relies on voters’ honesty, some technical aspects of the voting system have confused many participants. Voters have reported challenges, including issues where ballots unexpectedly shut down, prompting them to seek assistance.
The new guidelines have placed additional pressure on voters, as highlighted by informal discussions. A notable revelation came during a recent dinner where one longtime Academy member disclosed that they opted not to vote this year out of concern for having not seen a significant number of films. Conversely, others have made an effort to watch all nominees, with titles like Hamnet and Sentimental Value frequently mentioned as last-minute viewing priorities.
Following a recent column questioning the reliability of Oscar voters, responses varied widely. One past nominee expressed their disinterest in the race, citing a perceived decline in cinematic quality and valuing their time over casting a vote for films they felt were less deserving.
As the predictions unfold, there’s a hint of caution. Anecdotal evidence suggests some members are skipping categories or avoiding votes altogether if they haven’t viewed every nominee. The Academy’s efforts to promote thorough engagement might significantly impact the awards’ results, particularly in terms of voter turnout.
Here are the predictions for this year’s Oscars, based on current trends and industry insights:
Best Picture
The Nominees: Train Dreams, Sinners, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Frankenstein, F1: The Movie, Bugonia
Historically, the Academy’s preferential ballot system can lead to surprising outcomes, as seen in previous years. This year, One Battle After Another and Sinners are seen as frontrunners. However, the recent accolades for Sinners have ignited speculation about potential upsets.
The Winner: One Battle After Another
Best Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent.
Chalamet initially appeared to be a strong contender but faced setbacks in other major industry awards. The unexpected momentum for Michael B. Jordan, who recently won at the SAG-AFTRA Awards, signals a competitive landscape for this category.
The Winner: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Best Actress in a Leading Role
The Nominees: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Emma Stone, Bugonia; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.
Jessie Buckley’s triumph in multiple previous awards indicates her strong position heading into the Oscars, likely solidified by her outstanding performance in Hamnet.
The Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another.
Sean Penn’s recent accolades suggest he may take home a third Oscar for his impactful role, particularly with his strong momentum from the BAFTA and Actor Awards.
The Winner: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another.
With multiple nominees from Sentimental Value, this could split the vote, potentially allowing Amy Madigan to emerge victorious due to her distinct performance.
The Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Best Directing
The Nominees: Ryan Coogler, Sinners; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; Chloé Zhao, Hamnet.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s extensive accolades make him a strong favorite, although Ryan Coogler’s momentum could lead to an upset.
The Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners.
Ryan Coogler’s screenplay work has gained recognition, positioning him as a frontrunner in this category.
The Winner: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: Bugonia, Train Dreams, One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Frankenstein.
Paul Thomas Anderson seems poised to claim the award in this category, backed by a strong season of accolades.
The Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2, Arco.
KPop Demon Hunters stands out as an innovative favorite, expected to capture this category based on critical success.
The Winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Best International Feature Film
The Nominees: The Secret Agent, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Sirāt, Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident.
With Sentimental Value nominated for multiple awards, Norway’s entry could potentially win this year.
The Winner: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Best Documentary Feature Film
The Nominees: The Alabama Solution, The Perfect Neighbor, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, Cutting Through Rocks, Come See Me in the Good Light.
Given its significant reach and visibility, The Perfect Neighbor is likely to prevail.
The Winner: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Casting
The Nominees: Sinners, The Secret Agent, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Hamnet.
As the category has just been introduced, Sinners is forecasted to take the lead due to its high number of nominations.
The Winner: Sinners
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: Frankenstein, Train Dreams, Sinners, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme.
Spectacular visual storytelling is anticipated, likely favoring One Battle After Another based on its critical acclaim.
The Winner: One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: Sinners, Sentimental Value, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, F1: The Movie.
Given the trends in previous categories, One Battle After Another is expected to continue its winning streak here.
The Winner: One Battle After Another
Best Production Design
The Nominees: Sinners, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Frankenstein.
Frankenstein is expected to stand out due to its extravagant production design.
The Winner: Frankenstein
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Sinners, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Frankenstein.
Frankenstein is positioned as the frontrunner in this category as well.
The Winner: Frankenstein
Best Original Music Score
The Nominees: Sinners, One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Frankenstein, Bugonia.
Ludwig Göransson’s work on Sinners makes it a likely candidate for an Oscar victory.
The Winner: Sinners
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless.
The standout song from KPop Demon Hunters is anticipated to win, especially given its popularity.
The Winner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: The Ugly Stepsister, The Smashing Machine, Kokuho, Sinners, Frankenstein.
The intricate makeup in Frankenstein is expected to secure a win.
The Winner: Frankenstein
Best Sound
The Nominees: F1: The Movie, Sirāt, Sinners, One Battle After Another, Frankenstein.
The booming soundscapes of F1: The Movie position it as a potential winner.
The Winner: F1: The Movie
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Sinners, The Lost Bus, Jurassic World Rebirth, F1: The Movie.
Avatar: Fire and Ash is favored to win, continuing the franchise’s legacy of visual excellence.
The Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Documentary Short
The Nominees: All the Empty Rooms, Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud, Children No More: “Were and Are Gone,” The Devil Is Busy, Perfectly a Strangeness.
All the Empty Rooms is anticipated to resonate with voters due to its impactful subject matter.
The Winner: All the Empty Rooms
Best Live Action Short
The Nominees: Butcher’s Stain, Two People Exchanging Saliva, Singers, Jane Austen’s Period Drama, A Friend of Dorothy.
Two People Exchanging Saliva could emerge victorious thanks to its unique storytelling style.
The Winner: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Best Animated Short
The Nominees: Butterfly, The Three Sisters, Retirement Plan, The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Forevergreen.
Butterfly likely stands out due to its artistic style and significant narrative.
The Winner: Butterfly
With these predictions, Oscar enthusiasts and casual viewers alike have much to look forward to during the 98th Academy Awards.
