Global Box Office Expected to Hit $35 Billion by 2026, Say Analysts
Gower Street Analytics Projects Global Box Office Growth for 2026
Gower Street Analytics has unveiled its early projections for the global box office in 2026, estimating a total of $35 billion. This forecast indicates a second consecutive year of growth, representing a 5% increase over current estimates for 2025.
Chief Analyst Thomas Beranek stated, “We predict 2026 will be the highest grossing global year since 2019 ($42.3 billion), topping the current high of 2023 ($33.9 billion). Especially in markets driven by Hollywood productions, we expect the most significant growth.”
Despite this optimistic outlook, the 2026 estimate would still fall 12% short of the average box office earnings from the three years prior to the pandemic (2017-2019).
Domestically, the box office is projected to reach approximately $9.9 billion, reflecting an 11% increase compared to 2025, though this figure remains 14% lower than the 2017-2019 average. Meanwhile, the international box office, excluding China, is expected to rise by 5% to around $18 billion, though it would still be 11% behind the pre-pandemic average.
Regionally, Gower Street has broken down the expected international earnings: EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) is projected at $10.05 billion, a 7% increase from 2025 but 9% below the 2017-2019 average. The Asia Pacific region is estimated at $5.3 billion, neutral compared to 2025 yet down 15% from previous averages. Latin America is expected to achieve approximately $2.65 billion, which translates to a 9% increase from 2025, although it remains 5% less than the pre-pandemic average.
In China, after a year marked by both substantial successes—such as Ne Zha 2, the biggest local title ever, and Zootopia 2, the second-highest import title—projected earnings for 2026 are conservatively estimated at $7.1 billion, down 4% from 2025. Due to a limited release calendar, this market remains challenging to predict accurately.
Rob Mitchell, Gower Street’s Director of Theatrical Insights, emphasized the strong franchise slate for 2026, citing anticipated new installments from popular series including Avengers, Spider-Man, Toy Story, and Star Wars. He also mentioned promising non-franchise films, such as the musical biopic Michael and the live-action adaptation of Moana.
“We have a strong track record of forecasting accuracy,” said Gower Street CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos. “For 2024, our early forecast was within 5% of the actual global year-end result. For 2025, we’re tracking toward a final total within 2% of our original $33 billion forecast from last year.”
As potential changes to the release calendar are anticipated, Gower Street cautioned that these factors, along with unpredicted global events, may lead to fluctuations in their predictions.
The data presented is in U.S. dollars at historical exchange rates for years before 2025 and at current rates for the projected years. Gower Street anticipates that fluctuations in the release calendar and untitled upcoming studio releases could impact their estimates. Moreover, the predictions do not account for any unexpected global events.
