Time is Running Out for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Upcoming Kentucky Derby Sparks Intense Competition among Contenders

The Kentucky Derby is just eight weeks away, creating a narrow window for contenders vying for a coveted spot in the race at Churchill Downs. Each Derby candidate has only one or two remaining opportunities to secure one of the 20 starting positions in the oversized gate.

As preparations ramp up, every preliminary race, including the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita this Saturday, gains heightened significance. Horses compete to solidify their status, while others may fall out of contention due to illness or injury.

Currently, the frontrunners include horses with recent victories in races across Louisiana, Florida, and Arkansas—Paladin, Commandment, Nearly, Renegade, and Class President.

Trainer Bob Baffert, who has achieved a record six Derby victories, acknowledges the unpredictable nature of the competition. "You don’t take horses to the Derby. They take you to the Derby," he remarked, highlighting the ever-changing landscape of contenders.

Recent weeks have underscored that volatility. A week ago, Baffert would have identified Plutarch, Litmus Test, and Brant as his leading Derby hopefuls. However, Plutarch recently faced a minor setback post-victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and is now out of the Derby. Furthermore, Litmus Test placed third in his first race of the year, the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Despite these challenges, Baffert received welcome news when Cherokee Nation, previously winless in five career starts, clocked the fastest mile at Santa Anita in nearly a decade. Winning by 10 lengths, he garnered a Beyer Speed Figure of 100—only one 3-year-old, Commandment, has a higher figure this year for races longer than a mile. "What he did … was pretty impressive to me," Baffert stated, noting the horse’s pedigree and significant sales price of $1.15 million as a yearling. Cherokee Nation is now positioned as a leading prospect, although he must perform well in the Santa Anita Derby next month to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

Baffert also has Brant in the San Felipe, who last year showed promise with a 101 Beyer figure in a debut race. After a hiatus, Brant is expected to re-establish himself as he enters the Grade 2 San Felipe, where the winner will earn 50 Derby points, ensuring a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby.

Meanwhile, So Happy, another contender, has emerged as a sentimental favorite, having recently won two sprint races. He is trained by Mark Glatt, coping with the recent loss of his wife, Dena.

In another notable upcoming race, the $300,000 Santa Anita Handicap has been reduced to five starters following scratches of favored horses, including Skippylongstocking. The field lacks traditional stakes winners, with new morning-line favorite Just a Touch yet to win a stakes race.

As the stakes rise, the B. Wayne Hughes Beholder Mile showcases Splendora as the leading contender, while El Potente is favored in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile, which has been downgraded to Grade 2 status this year.

In a thrilling lead-up to Derby Day, the outcome of these races will undoubtedly shape the landscape of this year’s Kentucky Derby contenders.