Could a Republican be California’s Next Governor? New Poll Shows Increasing Possibility
Two Republicans Lead in California Gubernatorial Race, Polls Suggest
As California approaches its primary election on June 2, 2026, recent polling indicates a potential shift in the state’s political landscape, with two Republicans vying for a spot in the November run-off. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies reports a notable possibility that a conservative figure could take the governor’s office in this predominantly blue state.
The latest numbers show former Fox News host Steve Hilton leading with 17% support among likely voters, closely followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16%. This development raises concerns among California Democrats, who fear losing control of the governor’s mansion.
Trailing behind the GOP candidates are Congressman Eric Swalwell and former Congresswoman Katie Porter, each garnering 13% of support. Notably, billionaire businessman and environmentalist Tom Steyer has surged from 1% in October 2025 to 10% in March 2026, attributed to an aggressive advertising campaign across television and digital platforms.
Many other candidates have struggled to gain traction despite entering the race earlier. Former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra has received 5% support, while former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan each hold 4%. Former California State Controller Betty Yee and California Superintendent Tony Thurmond have only secured 1%.
One significant change since October 2025 is the reduction in undecided voters. Whereas nearly half of California voters were undecided back then, only about 16% remain uncertain as of March 2026. This trend suggests that more voters have formed opinions on their preferred candidates.
Republican voters, particularly those aligned with the MAGA movement, are concentrated in their support for Hilton and Bianco, as indicated by the poll. In response, some Democratic leaders are urging candidates with low support to withdraw from the race ahead of the April 15 deadline. This plea aims to consolidate support around more viable Democratic candidates.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks emphasized the need for a responsible political strategy in an open letter earlier this month, stating, “(We) all have a duty to act in a responsible manner with the opportunities and support we have earned. I believe it starts with a candid assessment of the political landscape around you, an honest reflection on your viability to win the race, and the courage to make a tough choice.”
As of now, candidates with less than 5% support have not publicly indicated whether they plan to exit the gubernatorial race.
