A Closer Look at Paramount and Warner Bros’ Ambitious Plan for 30 Films a Year
The landscape of the U.S. box office has transformed significantly over the past year.
At last year’s CinemaCon, industry stakeholders were grappling with doubts regarding the future of theatrical releases, particularly after a sluggish first quarter that saw the domestic box office lag behind 2024 by 11%. The fortunes of the market shifted dramatically following the success of the Minecraft Movie, which helped propel the box office to nearly $1 billion globally while attendees mingled in the iconic setting of Caesar’s Palace.
As of this year, the domestic box office has reached $2.26 billion—a first since 2019—marking a 23% increase compared to the same period last year, according to Comscore. The volume of wide releases, defined as films opening in over 1,000 theaters, soared to 162, outpacing pre-COVID figures from 2019, which saw just 138 releases. Notably, admissions are up to 154 million—a 16% increase over the previous year, according to EntTelligence.
However, a sense of apprehension permeates the industry, fueled by the impending merger between Paramount and Warner Bros, expected to conclude by the fourth quarter of this year.
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Paramount CEO David Ellison has consistently pledged to release 30 films annually while assuring that Warner Bros and Paramount will operate independently.
Despite Ellison’s pro-theatrical stance, many in the industry express skepticism regarding the sustainability of such a production model. Concerns include the uneven mathematics of publicity and advertising expenditures against release schedules—especially influenced by the personalities of Hollywood talent. A prime example of such anxieties is the aftermath of the Disney-Fox merger, which resulted in a $1 billion drop in box office revenues between 2016 and 2025, amounting to a 70% decline.
Exhibitors looking for prompt reassurances this week may be disappointed. Paramount distribution executives are unable to discuss future plans with theater owners due to regulations on merger discussions. Moreover, it remains uncertain whether Ellison will make a live appearance at Paramount’s presentation at Caesar’s Palace on Thursday, but a personal appearance could foster goodwill among theater operators.
Interestingly, not all exhibitors share the same concerns regarding the merger. AMC CEO Adam Aron has reportedly expressed confidence in a Warner Bros-Paramount combination. Similarly, Cinemark CEO Sean Gamble expressed enthusiasm for the merger at a recent conference, commending both studios for their historical support of theatrical exhibition.
If 30 Films, Here’s the Way
Previous reports suggest that a merged Warner Bros and Paramount could yield 42 theatrical releases by the end of 2027, according to Comscore. Instances of both studios releasing films simultaneously have already been noted, often serving as counter-programming. The ambitious goal of producing 30 films annually is seen as a future challenge.
“One rival studio executive remarked, ‘They’ll have $79 billion in debt, and the only way they can recover is through theatrical releases, not just by putting films on Paramount+,’” commented one industry insider.
This perspective aligns with the growth of streaming services, as Paramount+ and HBO Max aim for subscriber bases of approximately 172 million, still trailing behind Netflix, Amazon, and Disney.
A source familiar with the potential merger noted, “Anyone claiming that 30 films isn’t achievable is likely thinking within the limitations of standard studio structures. Both studios can operate at that level with a different business model. To compete effectively, they’ll need to invest more and produce 30 films a year.”
Historically, co-existing studios, such as Disney/Touchstone/Miramax and Warner Bros/New Line, successfully produced around 30 films annually under the same umbrella in the late 1990s to early 2000s. This model has not been seen on a similar scale during the streaming era. Following the lackluster performance of The Golden Compass, New Line was gradually absorbed into Warner Bros, leading to a reduction in their output.
Questions remain regarding the marketing and distribution strategies post-merger, particularly concerning the futures of executives Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy.
Another point of contention involves whether the two studios can compete on projects after merging. Historical rivalries, such as that between Miramax and Buena Vista International, demonstrate the challenges of competition for film festival acquisitions, which eventually evolved into cooperative agreements.
A recent NRG report on the Paramount-Warner Bros merger indicates that an annual output of 30 films would far exceed their combined post-COVID production, which typically ranges from 14-20 movies.
“The combined box office for these entities averaged $2.4 billion from 2015-2019 and $2.2 billion from 2023-2025. If they successfully expand their release slate, it’s reasonable to expect $2 billion-plus annually given the number of tentpole franchises these historic studios possess,” the report added.
NRG outlined three potential scenarios for a future where Paramount and Warner Bros operate together:
A climb to 25 movies annually could restore lost volume in the marketplace, likely increasing moviegoing if release quality meets expectations.
A consistent output of 20 movies could maintain current performance levels, though it would not address the pressing need for volume and demand.
Conversely, outputting just 15 movies a year would reduce the chances for breakout hits, stifling the overall ecosystem and placing greater dependence on fewer successes—a high-risk scenario for theatrical sustainability, according to NRG.
Finally, the organization noted a prevailing sentiment among focus group participants that reduced competition could stifle creativity and risk-taking in the industry.
Looking ahead, the real question isn’t merely whether Paramount and Warner Bros can achieve their ambitious goal of producing 30 films annually, but rather, can the market absorb such an influx?
